THE BLACK MASSES BAY STORAGE KEY DRIVERS
Emergence of multiple ocean ecosystem drivers in a large ensemble suite with an Earth system model. Time of emergence of trends in ocean biogeochemistry. Time of emergence for regional sea-level change. Perceptible changes in regional precipitation in a future climate. Time of emergence (TOE) of GHG-forced precipitation change hot-spots. Toward a new estimate of ‘Time of Emergence’ of anthropogenic warming: insights from dynamical adjustment and a large initial-condition model ensemble. Probability of emergence of novel temperature regimes at different levels of cumulative carbon emissions. The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability. Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries. Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries.
Recent Southern Ocean warming and freshening driven by greenhouse gas emissions and ozone depletion. Detection and attribution of Atlantic salinity changes. Near-surface salinity as nature’s rain gauge to detect human influence on the tropical water cycle. Attribution of ocean temperature change to anthropogenic and natural forcings using the temporal, vertical and geographical structure. Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise. Human-induced global ocean warming on multidecadal timescales. The fingerprint of human-induced changes in the ocean’s salinity and temperature fields. A new perspective on warming of the global oceans. Penetration of human-induced warming into the world’s oceans. Global ocean warming tied to anthropogenic forcing. Detection of anthropogenic climate change in the world’s oceans. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining and augmenting an ocean observing system capable of detecting and monitoring persistent anthropogenic changes.īarnett, T. The well-ventilated Southern Ocean water masses emerge very rapidly, as early as the 1980–1990s, while the Northern Hemisphere water masses emerge in the 2010–2030s. The models predict that in 2020, 20–55% of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian basins have an emergent anthropogenic signal reaching 40–65% in 2050 and 55–80% in 2080. Here, using 11 climate models, we define when anthropogenic temperature and salinity changes are expected to emerge from natural variability in the ocean interior along density surfaces. While the most pronounced observed temperature and salinity changes are located in the upper ocean, changes in water masses at depth have been identified and will probably strengthen in the future. The World Ocean is rapidly changing, with global and regional modification of temperature and salinity, resulting in widespread and irreversible impacts.
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